Baku:OPEC has once again lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth for 2026, citing uncertainty due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Despite this, Saudi Arabia has seen a significant recovery in oil production.

According to National Iraqi News Agency, the organization’s October report projects an increase in global oil demand of 180,000 barrels per day in 2026 compared to 2025. This adjustment marks the sixth consecutive month of downward revisions, with reductions averaging 200,000 barrels per day each month since the conflict began in late February.

Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, achieved its highest monthly production level since the war began, reaching 8.372 million barrels per day in September. This is a notable recovery from the 6.24 million barrels per day recorded in August, which was the lowest for the year.

The revision in demand growth is attributed mainly to a decrease in diesel fuel demand by about 190,000 barrels per day. Since February, the European benchmark price for diesel has surged from approximately $95 per barrel to nearly $200 per barrel in September, driven by reduced Russian oil product supplies, low inventory, and seasonal refinery maintenance.

Diesel, being highly sensitive to market disruptions, has become the subject of intense diplomatic negotiations due to escalating consumer prices. Despite the anticipated slowdown in 2026, OPEC forecasts a demand increase of 2.6 million barrels per day in 2027, driven by the need to replenish oil stockpiles.