Tokyo: When war erupts in the Middle East, it affects not only the countries directly involved in the conflict but also those far removed from it. The recent attacks by the US and Israel on Iran have triggered a severe energy crisis in Asia, particularly impacting Japan, South Korea, and China. This crisis was exacerbated by Iran's partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital channel for approximately one-fifth of global oil trade.
According to TRTworld.com, the numbers paint a stark picture of dependency. In 2024, the majority of oil and gas that passed through this strategic strait was destined for Asia. Japan relies on the Middle East for about 90 percent of its crude oil, while South Korea sources 70 percent of its crude from the same region, with 95 percent of that passing through Hormuz. As of March 17, more than two weeks after the blockade began, over 150 oil tankers remained stuck in the Gulf.
The economic consequences of this conflict are significant. The price of Brent crude oil initially rose by about 15 percent, eventually reaching $120 a barrel. Projections suggest prices could soar to $150 or more, affecting the GDP of nations like Japan and prompting South Korea to implement a 100 trillion won programme to stabilize its market amid the uncertainty.
In Japan, the crisis has reignited debates over the country's pacifist constitution. Before her visit to Washington, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was urged by former US President Trump to send warships to the region to secure the Strait of Hormuz. While Takaichi seeks to strengthen Japan's military posture, she has resisted deploying warships, instead considering non-combat roles that might be acceptable to both Washington and domestic audiences.
The conflict also impacts the Indo-Pacific security framework. The US redeployment of THAAD and Patriot missile defence systems from South Korea to the Middle East has strained relations in the region. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung acknowledged the redeployment, expressing concerns over diminished military deterrence against North Korea and the diplomatic implications with China.
The situation underscores the need for greater strategic autonomy in Asia. Unlike Japan and South Korea, countries like Trkiye have developed frameworks for maintaining autonomy while navigating great-power competition. Trkiye's energy strategy, involving pipelines and offshore drilling partnerships, exemplifies this approach. The current crisis exposes the limitations of dependence on deep alliances, suggesting that nations like Japan and South Korea might benefit from diversifying their strategic engagements.
The energy crisis highlights the importance of diversification and structural reform in addressing systemic vulnerabilities. The ongoing dependence on Middle Eastern oil underscores the interconnectedness of energy security and geopolitical strategy. As long as these dependencies persist, future crises in critical regions like the Strait of Hormuz may be inevitable.