Tehran: The longer Israel’s attack on Iran continues, the greater the speculation about the possibility of overthrowing the government in Tehran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly stated on US broadcaster Fox News that regime change in Iran “could certainly be the result” of Israel’s operation there, citing the government’s perceived weakness.

According to Deutsche Welle, US President Donald Trump has sent mixed messages regarding the situation. On his social network, Truth Social, Trump claimed to know the whereabouts of Iran’s Supreme Leader, labeling him an “easy target” but asserting that there are no immediate plans for an attack. The concept of foreign-imposed regime change remains controversial, often criticized as a violation of state sovereignty under international law. Such endeavors have historically led to instability, power vacuums, and violence, leaving newly established governments struggling to address the nation’s issues.

The case of Afghanistan serves as a cautionary example of the perils associated with regime change. Following the September 11, 2001 attacks, NATO invoked its mutual defense clause for the first time, leading a coalition to topple Afghanistan’s Taliban regime. Despite initial successes, internal disagreements and a precarious security situation persisted for two decades. The withdrawal of US and allied forces in 2021 saw the Taliban regain power, undoing much of the progress made and leaving the country isolated and impoverished.

The invasion of Iraq in 2003 further illustrates the challenges of regime change. The US-led coalition overthrew Saddam Hussein without a UN mandate, citing false claims of weapons of mass destruction. The aftermath saw sectarian violence escalate and a transitional government criticized for mismanagement. Although violence has decreased and Iraq is preparing for elections, the country remains in transition two decades after the invasion.

Libya’s experience also underscores the difficulties of regime change. The 2011 Arab Spring protests led to a civil war and NATO intervention, resulting in the death of Muammar Gaddafi. However, the country has since been plagued by conflict between rival militias and has struggled to form a stable government, with human rights conditions remaining dire.

Eckart Woertz, a Middle East expert, suggests that regime change in Iran would require ground forces, as there is no significant internal rebel movement capable of overthrowing the regime. Woertz highlights historical examples, noting that successful regime changes, such as post-World War II Germany, involved ground invasions and local support. He argues that aerial bombardments alone have never achieved regime change, and Iran is unlikely to be an exception.