Beijing: An international report revealed China’s concern about US President Donald Trump’s peace efforts between Russia and Ukraine and his efforts to forge a new global security order between the United States and Russia and isolate China.
According to National Iraqi News Agency, the report, published in South Korea, stated that amid recent US efforts to accelerate peace talks between Russia and Ukraine to Moscow’s advantage, China is increasingly concerned about North Korea and Russia deepening their relations through a new strategic treaty and Pyongyang’s deployment of troops. US negotiations with Russia appear to be driven not only by the goal of ending the conflict in Ukraine, but also by a broader strategy to reshape the global security order by strengthening bilateral relations.
It was explained that the Trump administration’s vision for the international security architecture focuses on increasing China’s isolation, a goal that may include dealing not only with Russia but also with North Korea. Frustrated by Beijing’s tepid response to the North Korea-China-Russia alliance and the nuclear issue, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has increasingly turned to President Putin. Putin, who maintains regular contact with Trump and has expressed support for North Korea’s position, is seen as a potential mediator. This context explains Kim’s tireless efforts to strengthen relations with Russia.
Chinese President Xi Jinping is likely experiencing a mixture of anxiety and tension as he considers a potential “friendship” between Putin, Trump, and Kim. The potential for a shift in US-Russian relations after Trump’s return to power, coupled with North Korea’s increasing tilt toward Russia, has exacerbated Beijing’s fears of losing its established strategic foothold in Northeast Asia and its traditional influence over Pyongyang. In response, China is likely to prioritize repairing its strained relations with North Korea in an attempt to bring it back into its sphere of influence.
The report further explained that China must carefully consider a range of uncertainties that could shape future developments. One major factor is the uncertainty surrounding the changing goals of the negotiations and the resumption and outcome of the US-North Korea talks. Since the collapse of the Hanoi summit, Kim Jong Un has advanced his nuclear capabilities, and in September of last year-just before the US presidential election-he unexpectedly revealed a facility for producing highly enriched uranium, a major sticking point in the Hanoi negotiations. This move is widely viewed as a clear message that Kim wants recognition as a nuclear state while rejecting talks focused on denuclearization.
Some experts suggest that President Trump’s public reference to North Korea as a “nuclear power,” along with his demonstration of a personal relationship with Kim, increases the likelihood that Kim’s goal will become a reality. However, assuming this means Trump intends to engage in nuclear arms reduction talks with Kim requires further caution. Indeed, the Trump administration recently reaffirmed its commitment to the principle of complete denuclearization of North Korea in joint statements with the foreign ministers of South Korea and Japan, as well as at a meeting of the G7 foreign ministers. This highlights a clear intention to maintain close coordination with allies on the North Korea issue.
North Korea is likely to highlight its growing ties with Russia to amplify its negotiating position and raise the cost of improving relations with Beijing. With nuclear arms control negotiations with the United States in mind, Kim Jong Un may use this dynamic to pressure China to signal that denuclearization is no longer a viable goal. Furthermore, Kim may demand increased economic assistance from China, effectively undermining sanctions efforts.
If China accedes to such demands, Kim-bolstered by support from both Russia and China-may be emboldened to pursue unprecedented levels of military adventurism, including nuclear and/or conventional provocations, to elevate the North Korean nuclear issue to a higher priority. The United States may use this escalation as justification for redeploying tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula or significantly increasing strategic military assets in the region to intensify pressure on China.
China must realize that backtracking on its principled position on denuclearization in favor of North Korea again could backfire, given the serious debate over nuclear weapons in South Korea and North Korea posing a real and growing nuclear threat in the region.