Washington: When Iraq’s new Prime Minister, Ali al-Zaidi, meets with former U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House today, a central topic of discussion is expected to be the disarmament of Iran-affiliated militias in Iraq. This issue holds significant implications for the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict.
According to Deutsche Welle, the Popular Mobilization Front (PMF), a coalition of paramilitary groups formed in 2014 to combat the Islamic State, is at the heart of this discussion. The PMF, which consists of approximately 240,000 fighters with a budget of $3.5 billion, includes factions aligned with Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” Some PMF groups are implicated in attacks on U.S. bases in the region, prompting U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio to highlight the need to address the threat posed by Iranian proxies.
Over the past year, the U.S. has increased pressure on Iraq to take action against these militias by designating certain factions as “foreign terrorist organizations,” imposing sanctions, and threatening to block Iraq’s oil revenues. In response, the Iraqi government has pledged to bring all arms under state control by the end of September, warning of prosecutions for non-compliance.
Efforts to disarm have seen mixed results. Influential cleric Muqtada al-Sadr directed his group, Saraya al-Salam, to surrender weapons, and other factions like Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) and Kataib Imam Ali have agreed to sever ties with the PMF. However, skepticism remains about the sincerity of these moves, with some suggesting it is more of a strategic rebranding than genuine disarmament.
The PMF’s political influence further complicates disarmament efforts, as their parties hold a significant number of seats in the Iraqi parliament. Analyst Omar al-Nidawi notes that the new prime minister’s position is precarious, given the power wielded by militia-aligned political groups. Al-Nidawi raises concerns about the ability to effectively monitor disarmament, citing Iraq’s weak state apparatus and the need for external verification.
Sajad Jiyad, an Iraqi political analyst, observes a shift in some militias like AAH towards political engagement, driven by their desire for greater influence. However, groups with closer ties to Iran, such as Kataib Hezbollah, remain resolute in maintaining their arms and resistance activities. This ongoing alignment with Iran complicates U.S. efforts to neutralize threats posed by these militias.
Despite some positive signs, Jiyad argues that without sustained regional stability, anti-U.S. actions could continue to emerge from Iraq. The strong pro-Iran sentiment within various Iraqi groups and the population adds to the challenge.
The pledges to disarm, while potentially signaling a less confrontational future, do not address accountability for past crimes committed by these militias. Al-Nidawi cautions that normalizing groups involved in acts of terrorism and violence may be more palatable to the U.S., but it raises significant moral and ethical concerns.