Baghdad:Research estimates indicate that rising temperatures linked to the El Ni±o phenomenon may result in hundreds of thousands of additional deaths worldwide, particularly affecting the elderly and children. Scientists have urged for proactive measures to safeguard the most vulnerable groups.
According to the Iraqi News Agency, the *New Scientist* reported that researchers from the Climate Impact Lab estimate around 450,000 heat-related deaths could occur during the study period. These figures are based on the observed correlation between extreme temperatures and mortality rates across various global regions.
Emily Grover-Kopec from the Rhodium Group stated that the goal of this information is to drive practical action and guide resource allocation proactively. Potential measures suggested include monitoring high-risk groups and ensuring access to water and cooling facilities.
The estimates highlight that regions where El Ni±o-induced heat coincides with the hottest seasons are most affected, though mortality spikes may shift as seasons change. Countries like India and Pakistan could be severely impacted, with risk levels varying depending on regional adaptation capacity and access to cooling methods.
The research divided the globe into approximately 24,000 regions, analyzing temperature-mortality relationships and utilizing historical data and regional comparisons. This was integrated with seasonal forecasts from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts to estimate excess heat-related deaths due to El Ni±o.
The six-month forecast period alone could see approximately 240,000 additional heat-related deaths, with the total estimate rising to around 450,000 during the phenomenon’s study period. Africa is particularly affected, with projections of over 30,000 additional deaths in Nigeria, approximately 19,000 in Indonesia, 16,000 in India, and 13,000 in Brazil.
The elderly are identified as the most vulnerable group to heat-related risks, followed by children and infants. However, all age groups are impacted. Christopher Callahan from Indiana University noted that the link between rising temperatures and mortality is consistent globally, dependent on the precision of weather forecasts.
Researchers caution that these estimates focus solely on heat-related deaths and do not account for other El Ni±o effects such as wildfires, floods, and certain infectious diseases, indicating a potentially broader health impact.
Raquel Nunes from the University of Warwick emphasized the importance of actions to mitigate avoidable harm over the absolute number of deaths, advocating for enhanced preparedness and proactive measures to protect vulnerable populations.