Vienna: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth at 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, consistent with previous assessments.

According to National Iraqi News Agency, OPEC stated in its monthly report that this strong growth is expected to continue its momentum into 2026, with a similar increase of approximately 1.3 million bpd anticipated. The report highlighted that the 90-day trade agreement between the US and China suggests the possibility of reaching more sustainable agreements, which could support trade flows.

OPEC attributed the bulk of this growth to non-OECD countries, which are expected to add approximately 1.2 million bpd to demand each year. Regions in Asia, led by China and India, are driving this consumption growth, with additional support from expansion in the Middle East and Latin America.

In contrast, demand growth in the OECD appears more modest, with only a projected increase of 0.1 million barrels per day in both 2025 and 2026. The Americas are expected to be the main driver of this growth within the OECD, while Europe may experience a slight contraction in demand in 2025.

Additionally, OPEC has lowered its forecast for oil supply growth from the United States and other producers outside the OPEC+ group this year. The organization cited expectations of lower capital expenditures following the decline in oil prices. OPEC now anticipates non-OPEC+ oil supply to increase by 800,000 barrels per day this year, a reduction from last month’s forecast of 900,000 barrels.