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Turkish Seismologist Predicts Mild Earthquake in Istanbul by Week’s End

Istanbul: A Turkish seismologist predicts that Istanbul will be hit by an earthquake at the end of this week after a series of minor tremors in its vicinity yesterday. Turkish seismologist Professor Osman Bektas announced that Istanbul is expected to experience an earthquake by the end of this week, but it will not be of destructive power and is likely to slightly exceed four degrees. He noted that next week will be crucial for assessing seismic activity in the Istanbul region following a series of minor tremors in the Sea of Marmara.

According to National Iraqi News Agency, a series of minor tremors, less than 3.5 on the Richter scale, were recorded in the central basin of the Sea of Marmara at depths ranging from 6 to 9 kilometers. Such events usually indicate a redistribution of pressure in certain parts of the fault due to minor movements.

Bektas said, "This in itself is not a harbinger of a strong earthquake, but the next three to seven days will be among the most important scientific indicators."

The seismologist indicated that the main indicator for specialists will be the probability of an earthquake exceeding four degrees within the next three to seven days. According to him, this will allow for a better understanding of the current state of the fault and the nature of the ongoing processes.

The expert urged against limiting predictions to a single, devastating earthquake scenario exceeding seven degrees.

He noted that the seismic situation in the Sea of Marmara could develop according to several scenarios, and that the question of whether the fault is closed or moving slowly requires further research.

The Sea of Marmara lies on the North Anatolian Fault, one of the most seismically active regions in the world.

Following a 6.2 magnitude earthquake off the coast of Istanbul in the spring of 2015, Turkish scientists intensified their monitoring of the area, which is considered the most likely location for another powerful earthquake near Istanbul.