Baghdad: Trkiye’s strategic depth has become part of Israel’s calculations, and it can launch an air attack without dragging NATO into the war. According to National Iraqi News Agency, the Israeli newspaper “Israel Hayom” reported that Tel Aviv is capable of launching an air strike against Turkey should tensions escalate between the two countries, without necessarily triggering Article 5 of NATO.

The newspaper detailed in a report titled “Turkey’s Strategic Depth Becomes Part of Israel’s Military Calculations” that Israel has “studied” the workings of Article 5, asserting that it can attack Turkish forces without provoking NATO intervention. It noted that Turkey’s NATO membership does not guarantee its protection in Syria, highlighting a recent incident where Israel bombed the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Syria before Turkish forces arrived.

The report explained that a surprise air strike could disrupt infrastructure before Turkish forces arrive, as any subsequent attack risks Turkish casualties, a retaliatory strike from Ankara, US intervention, and a confrontation with a NATO member-factors that alter the strategic calculations. Last Tuesday, Israeli aircraft targeted the runway of the Abu al-Duhur airbase in Syria, near the Turkish border, with eight airstrikes. Israel claimed that Syria was about to violate an existing security arrangement by allowing Turkish forces to deploy there, despite repeated Israeli warnings. Ankara denied any plans to deploy its forces at the base.

The Israeli newspaper noted that Tel Aviv’s analysis extended beyond the operation of Article 5 to its scope of application, particularly since the treaty protects Turkish territory and prohibits Turkish forces from transferring this territory to Syrian or Cypriot lands. Additionally, it raised questions about Turkish ships and aircraft operating in the Mediterranean, pointing out that even when Article 5 applies, collective action is not automatic, as NATO operates by consensus and each member state determines its appropriate response.