Tehran: The ongoing Israeli military operation in Iran has intensified speculation about the potential for regime change in Tehran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently suggested on Fox News that the current Iranian government is “very weak,” and regime change could be a possible outcome of Israel’s actions. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has sent mixed messages via his social media platform, Truth Social, hinting at knowledge of the Iranian Supreme Leader’s whereabouts but stating that there are no immediate plans to target him.

According to Deutsche Welle, the concept of foreign-imposed regime change is highly controversial and historically fraught with negative outcomes. Eckart Woertz, head of the German Institute of Global and Area Studies (GIGA), warns that achieving regime change externally is extremely challenging and may not lead to desirable outcomes. Instances of regime change in the region, such as in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, have often resulted in power vacuums, instability, and prolonged conflict.

In Afghanistan, efforts to overthrow the Taliban post-9/11 led to a two-decade-long mission marked by violence and failed state-building efforts. The eventual withdrawal of US and allied forces in 2021 saw the Taliban regain control, undoing years of progress. Similarly, the US-led intervention in Iraq to topple Saddam Hussein in 2003, based on false claims of weapons of mass destruction, plunged the country into sectarian violence and instability. Though Iraq is now more stable, it remains a nation in transition.

Libya’s experience with regime change began with the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings against Muammar Gaddafi. NATO’s intervention led to Gaddafi’s fall, but the absence of a unified government has left Libya in a state of ongoing conflict and division.

Woertz stresses that a successful regime change in Iran would likely require ground forces, as there is no strong internal rebel movement capable of overthrowing the regime. Historical examples, such as post-World War II Germany, show that successful regime changes often involve ground invasions and local support. Aerial bombardments alone have never led to regime change, and Woertz doubts Iran will be an exception.